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The global order, characterized by multilateralism, strategic partnerships, and diplomatic norms, has been undergoing significant shifts in the past few years. One of the most notable shifts has been the rise of ‘Trumperica’, a term coined to describe the United States under the leadership of former President Donald Trump, whose policies radically altered traditional international relations. This eBook offers an insightful analysis for UPSC aspirants on how India should navigate its foreign policy in light of the unique and evolving dynamics presented by ‘Trumperica’.
The term ‘Trumperica’ symbolizes a period of America’s foreign policy where traditional alliances, democratic values, and global cooperation were often subordinated to nationalist and protectionist ideals. In the wake of the 2020 election and the ongoing implications of Trump’s presidency, this eBook will help students understand the challenges and opportunities India faces in a world increasingly shaped by this new America.
The Rise of America First
The Trump administration, which lasted from January 2017 to January 2021, was marked by a strong emphasis on America First — a doctrine that focused on prioritizing U.S. interests over international cooperation. This approach had profound implications for global politics:
Isolationism and Protectionism: Trump’s policies included pulling out of international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal, while simultaneously imposing tariffs on countries like China and the European Union. This protectionist stance undermined multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Unilateralism in Global Affairs: Trump distanced the U.S. from various global organizations and took an unpredictable stance on issues ranging from NATO to global health crises, exemplified by the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Populism and Nationalism: Trump’s rhetoric and policies were deeply shaped by populist and nationalist ideals, advocating for policies that were often at odds with established democratic norms and international cooperation.
For India, ‘Trumperica’ created a paradox. On the one hand, India shares strategic interests with the U.S., such as countering China’s influence and addressing global terrorism. On the other hand, India’s core foreign policy values—multilateralism, non-alignment, and respect for international laws—clashed with America’s “America First” approach.
In particular:
The U.S. Withdrawal from Multilateral Agreements
Paris Climate Accord: Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement was a stark reminder that global cooperation on pressing issues like climate change could not be guaranteed when one of the world’s largest polluters opted out. India, as a developing country and a key player in global environmental issues, was forced to accelerate its efforts to position itself as a leader in climate action in the absence of U.S. commitment.
Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran posed significant dilemmas for India, particularly in the context of India’s energy security and its trade relations with Iran. The imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran created tensions for India, which was dependent on Iranian oil and had historical ties with Tehran.
The China Dilemma and Strategic Rivalry
One of the most defining aspects of ‘Trumperica’ was the U.S. shift toward a more confrontational approach to China, marked by trade wars, tariffs, and a strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific region.
Indo-Pacific Strategy: Trump’s emphasis on a free and open Indo-Pacific was seen as an opportunity for India to strengthen its strategic partnership with the U.S., particularly in the context of growing Chinese assertiveness in the region. However, India’s position as a rising global power meant that it had to carefully navigate between aligning with the U.S. on issues related to China while ensuring that it did not disrupt its relations with Beijing, which has been crucial to India’s economic growth.
Trade Wars and Tariffs: The U.S.-China trade war under Trump impacted the global supply chain, and India found itself in a delicate position of balancing its trade relationships with both countries. The challenge for India was to take advantage of the tensions between the U.S. and China without escalating its own economic or diplomatic conflicts.
Rising Nationalism and Protectionism
Trump’s protectionist economic policies, including tariffs on imports and a general retreat from free trade, had global repercussions. For India, this presented both challenges and opportunities:
Trade Tensions: India faced trade barriers in the form of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and agricultural products under Trump’s administration. This created an environment where India had to negotiate new trade agreements, particularly with the U.S., to avoid being disadvantaged in the global market.
Opportunities for Bilateral Engagement: At the same time, the U.S. under Trump sought to engage in bilateral trade agreements rather than multilateral ones, opening an opportunity for India to renegotiate its trade deals with the U.S., including through forums like the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum.
Balancing Relations with the U.S. and China
India’s response to the dynamics of ‘Trumperica’ involved a fine balancing act. On one hand, India had to strengthen its defense and security cooperation with the U.S. to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, India’s long-standing economic ties with China required a diplomatic approach that avoided direct confrontation.
Quad Cooperation: One of the key developments in India’s strategic engagement with the U.S. during the Trump years was its participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. India viewed the Quad as a way to counter China’s military and economic assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
Sino-Indian Relations: Despite tensions with China, India maintained a pragmatic approach, especially in trade and infrastructure development, ensuring that its economic growth remained unimpeded.
The Need for a More Assertive Foreign Policy
India’s response to the changing dynamics under ‘Trumperica’ also emphasized the importance of a more assertive foreign policy:
Engagement with Multilateral Institutions: While Trump’s administration was marked by a disregard for multilateralism, India remained committed to strengthening international institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the G20. India used its position to call for reforms in these bodies, pushing for a more inclusive and multipolar world order.
Strategic Autonomy: India continued to emphasize its strategic autonomy, rejecting the binary choice between the U.S. and China. This approach allowed India to expand its global partnerships and maintain its independence in foreign policy decision-making.
In the era of ‘Trumperica’, New Delhi’s foreign policy must remain flexible and adaptable. India must continue to pursue a strategy that:
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